I would like to say that I am astonished at the support I get from other Twitter users in my trading quite notably from @SteveMarshall13 a trader much like myself who is on a learning curve towards being a pro trader, along with a couple of others @SP_FX13, @TheForexTradeRoom1 and @TheFXWhisper. All of whom have supported me by discussing things like trends, indicators and what we hope to gain from our trading along with a few retweets which I am very grateful for (and will try to do more often for you lot too! I tend to like things in my head and forget to let anyone know). Having raced through the 600 followers mark and made good headway to 650 over the weekend I am really excited about the support that you all give me and the confidence that instills in me for my trading.
Fluctuations - I just wanted to talk about market movement and make the title alliterate. Anyway I like the motions of the market at the moment, over the last week or two as well. While they have not been uber predictable, GBPUSD seems to be trading within certain limits that are not being shaken as there is no big economic news out. No deficit ceiling for a couple months, the fiscal cliff is past us and trading isn't being disrupted every two days by Christmas (despite it being a welcome break). Saying this, I am hoping that my words aren't going to come back and bite me by having the market hit 1.59 or 1.63 in the next week - I highly highly doubt it will; I have my sights set on just below 1.60 by the end of this week. The limits that I see as being support and resistance are 1.60115 (there abouts) and 1.617 (ish). While it is staying in these ranges I am not worried about opening positions and am able to do so with some confidence that if I open a long at 1.603, it isn't going to just keep going down but instead I can be relatively sure the market will go up within a day or so of opening the position. I hope everyone else is having a similar experience and finding the predictability of the market relatively easy.
Finally, I just wanted to update you as to my progress this year. As you may have read from past instalments in this blog, I began trading after Christmas with a balance of 512 USD. I am very pleased to say that I have been making good progress with my new trading strategy, taking longer in my trades and putting in more thought. I have re-reached (as in reached for the second time) 800 USD. Very pleased with this and as I tweeted the other day I banked 355 pips profit - I was very happy about that!
This is an unofficial last point as it doesn't alliterate with the title: predictions. I want to see the market pushing the 1.60 boundary at the end of this week and will be retisent to open any long positions that are of any substantial value. I am counting much more on shorts than longs for profit. Of course my opinions and predictions seem to change every day with constant news of economies and data being released etc... A nightmare if you are trying to take my predictions into account along with your own but I can tweet my MOST confident trade opinions if that would be better for everyone.
Thank you for reading, I hope you enjoyed it! Tweet @fxamateurtrader and I will reply as soon as I can and welcome any support etc or guidlines that you wish to offer me. Alternatively DM me or e-mail me at fxamateurtraderuk@hotmail.co.uk
Good luck with all your trading!!
Tuesday 15 January 2013
Thursday 10 January 2013
Quick cover of TopTradr, Friday expectations and my strategy
I wrote about the TopTradr competition a while back and just realised that I never explained what the outcome was. In the end we finished around 84th place or so because we did not trade in the last two weeks of the competition - I was paying all my time and attention to my proper trading account as we came into December and things were recovering from the aftermath of the US Election. At one point near the start we reached 6th place which was very impressive but after a while of hanging around 10th we eventually fell way down! It was unfortunate that I was not able to put more time into it and that we fell so far back at the end but at the time my real money was far more important! It was very fun competing and I am looking forward to the next competition of a similar strain.
I like the current patterns coming out in the graphs for GBPUSD as it seems to be moving a relatively predictable cent up, then a cent down within the next two days. I am looking to see a repeat of the start of this week tomorrow (Friday) and to see the price come from 1.615 ish down back towards 1.60. I like making predictions but I do hope that if anyone reads them thinking they sound promising they realise that they really are amateur predictions and are highly likely to be wrong! They may come true over the course of a week or so but I am sure that many do not want to wait that long. When someone predicts something you want it to happen immediately really don't you.
Other than this there isn't much to say at the moment about my trading though I am meaning to look at the records from the first time I past 500 USD to see how my new strategy compares dollar-to-days worth. Was it better to make hundreds of small trades that each profited quickly or is it better to make a few choice trades that make substantial amounts more (in comparison). I will crunch the numbers and get back to you!
I know it wasn't a very exciting section but I hope you enjoyed reading and keep you eyes peeled for the next installment. Thanks very much and feel free to contact me Twitter @fxamateurtrader or fxamateurtraderuk@hotmail.co.uk
I like the current patterns coming out in the graphs for GBPUSD as it seems to be moving a relatively predictable cent up, then a cent down within the next two days. I am looking to see a repeat of the start of this week tomorrow (Friday) and to see the price come from 1.615 ish down back towards 1.60. I like making predictions but I do hope that if anyone reads them thinking they sound promising they realise that they really are amateur predictions and are highly likely to be wrong! They may come true over the course of a week or so but I am sure that many do not want to wait that long. When someone predicts something you want it to happen immediately really don't you.
Other than this there isn't much to say at the moment about my trading though I am meaning to look at the records from the first time I past 500 USD to see how my new strategy compares dollar-to-days worth. Was it better to make hundreds of small trades that each profited quickly or is it better to make a few choice trades that make substantial amounts more (in comparison). I will crunch the numbers and get back to you!
I know it wasn't a very exciting section but I hope you enjoyed reading and keep you eyes peeled for the next installment. Thanks very much and feel free to contact me Twitter @fxamateurtrader or fxamateurtraderuk@hotmail.co.uk
Tuesday 8 January 2013
In with the new and out with the old.
Thanks to all my readers for your continued support, I would just like to talk a bit about my new trading strategy. As some of you very supportive readers will know from reading past sections of this blog, in this New Year I have decided to change my trading strategy to a slow and steady method rather than quick and hastey.
Since I started trading last September I have been trading many small positions and taking profits as they arise - closing positions without worrying about letting them hit any "profit targets" or anything. Through this time, my profit targets were "any positive numbers" and it would only be due to the positions profiting while I am not looking or there being a strong trend in my favour that would result in a position making more than a couple of dollars. For example, a common occurence in my trading was to close a position (that may cost 4.50 USD) to take JUST 12 cents profit, or 50 cents profit. Several others asked me why I didn't just let the positions ride and make more but I told them that the reason for it was that I would rather be garuanteed 50 cents profit there and then, allowing my to open other positions, rather than wait and potentially not make any profit and struggling to break even.
If you were to look at my trading records you would see literally hundreds of positions taking small profits (with one or two more adventurous positions taking 10, 20 or on one occassion 70 USD). As time went on and my balance increased of course I was able to book bigger profits but this was purely because the positions themselves were bigger - so it was still that case that a position that cost 50 USD to open would only actually make 4 or 5 USD. This was a strategy that I was happy with as a beginner and it was very profitable for me as I had the time to dedicate to it - watching the markets most of the day and ensuring I was there to catch all the biggest opportunities. It takes a long time and a lot of trades to quadruple your money when you're making 1 or 2% on each trade.
Incidentally, I wanted to switch it up as I came into the New Year - I have adopted a method that some friends and many traders use whereby you open the position at what you consider to be the most opportune time and set a profit target and just wait for it to close before making your next move. So far instead of returning 1 or 2% on each trade it has been typically at least 50% which of course is a marked improvment! I am placing my trades as best I can and will hopefully continue to benefit from trading with the trend rather than against it or trying to anticipate it's turn around etc.
This week seems to be quite nicely up then down then up again, relatively predictable and easy to trade on - how likely this is to continue I don't know but I think it will go steeply up towards the end of the week. Please do let me know your own opinions though! I am saying that I expect the GBPUSD to go up because I have long positions open and am waiting for them to come in. Some are going to come in around 1.609 others are aimed at around 1.615. Either way I expect to see both. Next week could be much of the same though at the moment of writing I have not checked Bank Dates or what big pieces of information is due out from the US and UK. Good luck to all of you in your trading and remember to let me know your opinions on Twitter @fxamateurtrader or e-mail me at fxamateurtraderuk@hotmail.co.uk
Just so you know, my new trading strategy is bringing profits in far faster than my old strategy but I would not have been comfortable trading like this when I first started - I was far more eager to just grab any profits I could!! Double check your own strategy to see if there are any ways you could improve and see what changing it does for you! Thanks for reading!
Since I started trading last September I have been trading many small positions and taking profits as they arise - closing positions without worrying about letting them hit any "profit targets" or anything. Through this time, my profit targets were "any positive numbers" and it would only be due to the positions profiting while I am not looking or there being a strong trend in my favour that would result in a position making more than a couple of dollars. For example, a common occurence in my trading was to close a position (that may cost 4.50 USD) to take JUST 12 cents profit, or 50 cents profit. Several others asked me why I didn't just let the positions ride and make more but I told them that the reason for it was that I would rather be garuanteed 50 cents profit there and then, allowing my to open other positions, rather than wait and potentially not make any profit and struggling to break even.
If you were to look at my trading records you would see literally hundreds of positions taking small profits (with one or two more adventurous positions taking 10, 20 or on one occassion 70 USD). As time went on and my balance increased of course I was able to book bigger profits but this was purely because the positions themselves were bigger - so it was still that case that a position that cost 50 USD to open would only actually make 4 or 5 USD. This was a strategy that I was happy with as a beginner and it was very profitable for me as I had the time to dedicate to it - watching the markets most of the day and ensuring I was there to catch all the biggest opportunities. It takes a long time and a lot of trades to quadruple your money when you're making 1 or 2% on each trade.
Incidentally, I wanted to switch it up as I came into the New Year - I have adopted a method that some friends and many traders use whereby you open the position at what you consider to be the most opportune time and set a profit target and just wait for it to close before making your next move. So far instead of returning 1 or 2% on each trade it has been typically at least 50% which of course is a marked improvment! I am placing my trades as best I can and will hopefully continue to benefit from trading with the trend rather than against it or trying to anticipate it's turn around etc.
This week seems to be quite nicely up then down then up again, relatively predictable and easy to trade on - how likely this is to continue I don't know but I think it will go steeply up towards the end of the week. Please do let me know your own opinions though! I am saying that I expect the GBPUSD to go up because I have long positions open and am waiting for them to come in. Some are going to come in around 1.609 others are aimed at around 1.615. Either way I expect to see both. Next week could be much of the same though at the moment of writing I have not checked Bank Dates or what big pieces of information is due out from the US and UK. Good luck to all of you in your trading and remember to let me know your opinions on Twitter @fxamateurtrader or e-mail me at fxamateurtraderuk@hotmail.co.uk
Just so you know, my new trading strategy is bringing profits in far faster than my old strategy but I would not have been comfortable trading like this when I first started - I was far more eager to just grab any profits I could!! Double check your own strategy to see if there are any ways you could improve and see what changing it does for you! Thanks for reading!
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